The Flagship Pod 12-16: Our 2022 Outlook

This week we discuss our ENTIRE OUTLOOK FOR 2022 in more depth and break down every single thing you need to know for next year in order to make the right investments!

The following is a transcript of the weekly Thursday Moby Live Podcast we host on Discord, at 2:00pm PST // 5:00pm EST.

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Peter Starr:

And now coming to you live from our coast to coast trading desk, this is the Flagship pod presented by Moby.co. A weekly discussion about the economy investing and the mechanics that'll help you grow your wealth over the long term. As always, I'm your host, Peter Starr, bringing you this time, our 2022 Moby outlook in terms of what's going to happen in investing the economy in 2022, not like exact predictions, but how we're feeling in terms of where the market is, especially now that finally, finally, one of the major narratives of 2021 is starting to resolve as we get to the point where we're understanding what the plan is in regards to inflation. So folks, I'm really excited to get into that as always, I'm joined by Justin Kramer, co-founder and chief analyst here at Moby.co, Justin man, we're right here, we're on the edge of the end of the year. We're sprinting to Christmas. What's good, man? Justin Kramer:

Yeah. No, it's always good on my end. Things are obviously a little bit hectic in the... or crazy rather in the markets and in the world right now. So really be surrounded with friends, family, good colleagues. So taking a day by day, but overall, things I guess could be worse, but just trying to remain optimistic, how about you?

Peter Starr:

We're here on Thursday, we're half an hour towards the close of markets and I'd love today because it's such a microcosm of all of Q4, today started out super green after the Fed meeting basically clarified, "Hey, we understand what inflation is. Here's our plan for dealing with inflation." So the market's like, "Hey, clarity," and everything was up. But then the market realized, "Oh no, inflation means tech stocks get rinsed." And so the tech stocking has begun.

Peter Starr:

Tesla is down 5% dipping down below a thousand dollars per share. And that's just kind of what you see happen when we finally acknowledge inflation. The party isn't ending, so to speak, but the growth stocks that drove a lot of the rallies we saw are finally getting a little bit of that top taken off. So Justin, what do think in terms of today alone? What are we supposed to take away as the market begins to react to the plan, in terms of how we're dealing with inflation?

Justin Kramer:

It's a good question. And I think a lot of people are surprised at what's going on, even though it should be honestly, somewhat obvious. And so what I mean by that is, the reason people are surprised is because over the last decade, since 2008, 2009, the stock market has moved in only one direction. And a large portion of what's been fueling that direction upwards has been growth tech stocks. The S&P 500 has been very concentrated returns. And over the last few years, especially since the pandemic the tech stocks have just absolutely skyrocketed. But with all that money that was being invested in, a lot what was propped up this entire time was the Fed. They were printing $1.5 trillion a year of stimulus, the Build Back Better plan, which is Biden's plan for America.

Justin Kramer:

That's more stimulus and the money being pumped into the economy, which was propping it up, worked because there wasn't really any inflation when we had a low interest rate environment. Over the last year, things have really changed a lot. And that's exactly why we've been calling for a rotation into value stocks. And so we've been calling to that, I would say since early summer and a large portion was because we saw the Fed signaling that a rate hike was coming. And so with this rate hike coming, we're going to get a reevaluation downwards. A lot of tech stocks that have high multiples, there's going to be something that's called multiple compression. Which essentially is like, for the same level of earnings or for the same level of revenues growth, the value at which it trades on a multiple basis, so times 20 times, 30 times 40, is going to a compressed downwards. And so that's just naturally going to hurt the stock price of all these super, super growth tech stocks.

Justin Kramer:

And so for investors, we've been calling it for a while now and the Fed's been signaling it, but now that it's getting a lot more real inflation is starting to hopefully hit a ceiling. People are like, "Oh well, now that's happening, the Fed is going to raise rates. They're going to stop their bonding program." And people are really scared and honestly, rightfully so. And so every stock that we've tried to recommend so far has been based around kind of that macro theme. We have recommended tech stocks, but if you noticed, a lot of the tech stocks we've recommended have very, very future data. So we're going to be, over the next year, in a very choppy market cycle where a lot of the value plays continue to shine. And we see these cyclical stocks continue to do well. And so all in all it's going to make for a very interesting year. And I think a lot of investors, especially the younger investors who haven't seen a market like this are going to be very surprised at what's to come next year.

Peter Starr:

And that's what I'm honestly excited for. I understand that, yes, it's a choppy environment and sentiment is very important. And so any negative sentiment can sort of compound the inflationary pressure we're seeing and compound that downward force. But what I love about this is it's finally time for people to put their big boy pants on and be real investors. A lot of what we saw in the investing community and investing media in 2020, specifically was just like, "Throw all your money, like YOLO all of your money into the stock market, because it's going to go up." We saw Tesla go from like $200 a share up to a thousand now I think, more like 400, whatever. We saw a lot of these really wild growth moments fueled by all these tech stocks. And now it's going to get to a point where we're going to have to be real investors again, actually diversify and think more about value stocks that are going to give us our long term advantage.

Peter Starr:

It was really cool making just stupid money in 2020 off of your stimulus check and growth tech stocks. That was fun, but that was sugar, right? It burns bright and it burns quick. And I'm really excited to get into the protein of investing, thinking about value stocks, thinking about making a real portfolio, that's going to carry you through retirement and through multi-generational wealth. And so that's what I am excited because we're finally going to get rid of a lot of that noise we see in investing media too. A lot of the day traders have quieted down a lot across Twitter and TikTok in the past few weeks. And that noise is only going to quiet down more. So let's get into some of those reviews because you're exactly right Justin. You've actually been calling for a switch from growth to value stocks.

Peter Starr:

My very first day, working at Moby, which was April 15th, 2021 was when you started writing your growth to value play post. I don't think you posted until more about May, but that's how long we've been thinking about this. For more than half of the year, while the party kind of continued through our Q2 and Q3 finally calming down a bit here in Q4. So let's look at what your 2022 outlook is. I think the main thing that a lot of people are trying to wrap their heads around is, "Okay, there's inflation. That's cool."

Peter Starr:

But also consumer confidence is as low as it was back in 2008 or really close, not exactly the same levels. But even though the actual crash is over a year ago, the big shock was March 2020, it's now December 2021. Consumer confidence is even lower now than it was then. So how do you parse that and how does that affect your thoughts in terms of investing moving forward? You just keep in value stocks or is this something that we should keep in mind as we sort of think about where our investments should go?

Justin Kramer:

Yeah. So the consumer confidence being down so much, it's not surprising, but it is pretty crazy that it's matching like the 2008, 2009 great financial crisis levels. The fact that it's lower than the absolute scare and peak we had during the real first wave of the pandemic back in April of last year or April 2020. It's crazy. And so a lot of this is really due to inflation. Buying goods is just not as easy as it once was. Filling up your car could almost double to triple on price over the last year. And so that's what's really driving a lot of this consumer confidence downward, is that consumers don't feel comfortable going out and buying the things they need because they're so fucking expensive. And then on top of that, the supply chain issue makes it forever to get.

Justin Kramer:

And so durables, which are things that are durable in nature. So think of toothpaste and things of that nature, you have to buy it. So increasing prices shouldn't affect sales there too much. So those stocks aren't bad to look at, but for things that are discretionary things, you don't need to buy, clothing and things of that nature, to a certain extent, those are the things that are going to start to get really hit if prices don't come back down. And so what we're looking for next year is what happens with inflation. And so it's impossible to actually predict, but once the Fed starts raising rates, once they start cutting back their bond buying program, that's when a lot of inflation can start to finally approach a ceiling. And so I don't think we're there yet, but I think it's coming somewhat soon.

Justin Kramer:

And once inflation stops, the real key is how fast we can bring it down while also not bringing down the market at the same time. So there is an interesting tool that again, I said it before, has been propping up the economy for a while. And it's the tapering or sorry, it's the bond buying program and it's the interest rate policies. And so when you start playing with monetary policy and fiscal policy, it really affects the markets. And so they need to be very careful so that they can bring down inflation, but they don't want to bring down the market as well.

Justin Kramer:

You see how these small changes ever since Jerome Powell came out yesterday and he's been talking about this, how it really, really affects the market. So, a lot of this is going to be policy driven. Consumer confidence is going to be then based upon inflation as like a lagging indicator. So long story short, I'm expecting inflation to peak out, hopefully in Q1 or Q2 of 2022, at which point we'll see how much the Fed can ultimately raise rates to combat inflation while trying to keep the market hot. And that's why I'm saying, there's going to be a choppy 2022. There's going to be a lot of up days, a lot of down days. People made a lot of money doing stupid shit last year and props to them, but it's going to be a lot harder to work out next year.

Peter Starr:

Exactly. And one thing too, when we think about that is just trying to find specific moments to latch onto. It's cool having a lot of like... The annoying thing about inflation is you have a lot of lagging indicators. I have the ability to look back and say, "Oh, this is why my particular investment here got rinsed because of X, Y, and Z." It's really hard in these choppy conditions to find leading indicators. And so when we look at this and we look at how difficult it is to navigate, if we manage to make sure that inflation peaks and actually hits its actual ceiling, hopefully in Q1, the actual coming down from high inflation to regular inflation is very complicated and it's a weird time. So I imagine seeing a lot of caution. I think the major thing that we're going to see is that during 2020 and 2021, we had a complete reversal of spend.

Peter Starr:

We were entirely driven by services as an economy, and then we all had to stay inside. So we went right back to goods, like 1950s levels of the difference between spending on goods and services. When you watch inflationary pressure, we're probably going to see retail sales growth will take a dip as people sort of think, "Oh, what's going on?" And if that happens, we're probably going to see the shift from services to goods reverse. We're going to go back to spending more on services than goods. And so if we see that, in addition to the choppy environment that we can expect from inflation peaking and going down, how do you sort of play that out as an investor? Does that mean I should avoid retail stocks altogether? Should I stop thinking about initiating a position in Dicks and all that and get right back to just services based stocks? How do you play through that and how do you account for things, like the potential of Omicron being really bad in the COVID 19 situation? How do you think about that shift? Go for it.

Justin Kramer:

No, it's a really good question. Because there's so many moving dynamics. You really touched upon them at the end. On one hand, there should be a shift back towards the service environment, but exactly to your point, if Omicron ends up being really bad and shuts the world back down, people aren't going to spend money on services because they physically can't. So there's a lot of interesting dynamics going on in the economy in terms of the market and retail. And so taking out COVID for just one second, what we're seeing is over the last decade, even two decades, or even further back, typically people are making two to 3% more every single year, keeping up at the pace of inflation. At the same time, retail sales growth is also going up two to 3%, which makes total sense. They should be going in one step, you make more money, you spend more money.

Justin Kramer:

That's the nature of the world we live in. What happened last year was that retail sales growth just absolutely skyrocketed. And so the reason this happened was because while income was keeping that two to 3% growth, people had a lot more money to play with, in the sense that if they weren't losing their jobs, especially now with unemployment being as low as it is, they had extra money from stimulus checks. They had extra money because they couldn't go anywhere, they weren't spending on anything. And so in the world started to reopen, we saw a ton of retail sales growth, and that's why Dicks, Lululemon, Nike, a lot of stocks we've been recommending there, did really well. And so what's going to happen going forward is it's going to play out in one of two ways. Either asset prices like stocks, will continue to remain elevated in which sense that people necessarily, won't necessarily have to spend less because the asset prices will be so high.

Justin Kramer:

They'll be making money that they continue to keep up this retail sales growth. It'll probably slow, but it doesn't necessarily have to crash. The other scenario is that the market looks like it may tank, it may be choppy. People assets aren't going to be priced the way they once were. If that is to happen, then we'll probably see a large dip in retail sales growth because people won't have the assets to play with it that they once did. And that's when we'll start to see this fundamental shift from people spending money on retail, to people spending money on services. So doctors offices, travel for work, a lot of these service level jobs that have been neglected over the last year or two because of what happened with retail and when you combine that with COVID, we'll see this massive transformation back into service led stocks.

Justin Kramer:

And so there's a handful of ones out there that kind of fit that description. But if the market remains choppy or even down next year, there's a really good chance of those stocks shun. And having said all that, I'm going to completely contradict myself, if Omicron ends up shutting the world down for the next six months, obviously all this is just completely not true in the sense that, people won't be able to travel, they won't be able to go to doctor's office. They won't be able to have people come into their home and fix things, the services just won't be a component. So going forward, we really, really need to be aware of three things. So the first is, how are asset prices trending. And then the second is, how are companies like Nike and Dicks, how are they reporting? Are they sales strong? Are they starting to take a dip?

Justin Kramer:

Is this the start of a reversal of a trend? And then the third thing we need to be aware of is just what's going on with lockdown, tracking the variant. Are things getting worse, are they getting better? And so it's impossible to say now those things going to go in one direction or the other, because we're just taking it day by day. But those are the signals that we need to be paying attention to in order to make sure that we are then investing appropriately. So right now we're taking the assumption that retail sales will drop. We are taking the assumption, asset prices will be choppy and we are taking the assumption that Omicron couldn't shut us down for the entire winter. I mean the last one is more of a guest than anything, because we just don't have enough data. But a lot of this is reacting in real time. So we're going to continue to update people. But these are things as individual investors, this is how you stay ahead and start making choices. When you start thinking about some of the macro factors.

Peter Starr:

And then just give audience, I understand the DM's I'm getting from you all. Let me give you my very fast sort of level set on Omicron real fast, because Justin's exactly right. It's still too soon to say just how intense Omicron is going to be. We have two essential facts. One, Omicron is definitely in the United States. Two, it's definitely more transmissible than Delta. And so when we think about if we're going to have lockdowns or not, the only question mark is how severe is Omicron? Now you've probably seen a lot of preliminary data being reported in the press that says Omicron's not as severe as regular COVID. There's just not enough data to suggest that, we just don't know yet. And so what's going to happen is that we'll understand how severe Omicron is compared to other variants, pretty much at the exact same time it starts peaking. We're talking early January, we'll have enough data to know how severe Omicron is, probably question mark.

Peter Starr:

And then by mid to late January, we'll have peak Omicron transmissibility in the United States. And so either that's going to be a super bad time or just a super cautious time. Right now, the only real tangible effect of Omicron from my perspective is it's going to allow the Philadelphia Eagles to sneak into the NFL playoffs because the Washington football team is almost completely knocked out from COVID. They'll forfeit on Sunday. Eagles get a free win and an extra bi-week and that's it. We're basically in the playoffs baby. Sorry, I had to throw that one in there. But that's right, right now that's the only real tangible effect. Go Eagles. Moving on. Let's talk about other markets real fast too, because the more you get into Omicron, the more you get into inflation, the more you just have to get into kind of basis speculation.

Peter Starr:

So my main question then comes to you, Justin, when we're thinking about this too, I want to see how this affects other markets. Number one thing we saw in 2021, early 2021 to mid 2021, where people feeling worried about it inflation and so many other members of the media being like "Cool, if you're worried about inflation, just invest in crypto, because crypto's a great inflation hatch. It doesn't match the market."

Peter Starr:

And then all the real inflation worries started to hit. And we saw a huge bear market begin, not necessarily bear market, just kind of bear moment within the crypto space in the last two weeks. So Justin, when you're thinking about this, you've done also a lot of analysis, looking at the numbers, seeing the technicals on how Bitcoin and the other top assets have performed. What is your view in terms of crypto in 2022 then? Is it one of those things where crypto should become more of our portfolio, if the world becomes more services based and as these crypto assets become the infrastructure, powering the metaverse? How do you think about that and how do you analyze that shift?

Justin Kramer:

Yeah, totally. So I want to preface this with the fact that crypto still hasn't been around that long. It was popular... The first surge happened in 2016, 2017. The next surge's been over the last year, but institutionally there's still not acceptance. So from a data perspective on what is, what isn't, no one definitively knows because such an emerging asset class. So just take all what I'm best to say with a grain of salt. But that is the truth. The matter, I don't think most people argue that. Now when it comes to your question about the inflation, now that we've prefaced it with that, I think it really shows everyone that it's not a perfect inflation head like a lot of people thought. I think a lot of people are kind of full of shit, especially with a lot of crypto evangelists and this is definitely the popular culture right now, not to talk down on it.

Justin Kramer:

But the truth of the matter is yes, it's not inflationary. There is no central bank to print more Bitcoin or some of these other coins depending on the specific policy. So from that standpoint, a hundred percent, it's not inflationary. And so it shouldn't be correlated. Where it is correlated is that that is a risky asset. People are not looking at this the same way they're looking at the US dollar. And so a lot of people just for whatever a reason, I still can't wrap my head around it, we're just completely ignoring the fact that it is a risk on asset. And so we move into a risk off atmosphere, you're going to see a pullback. And so, yes, it's not inflationary, but it's going to move with markets because people are scared of losing their assets.

Justin Kramer:

If you have $500,000, a million dollars, you have a thousand dollars in the market and it goes down 30%, you're going to be scared. And you don't look at crypto as not looked at yet because it hasn't been safe enough of an investment for people to hold onto that asset through down times, if it doesn't move. There's too much volatility. And so when the market tanks, people are going to pull their money out and it's going to tank prices. And so people say that it's not correlated to the markets, but the truth matter is, it's a risk asset. And in times when risk is off, it's going to get hurt regardless of how inflation is trending. So again, take that all with a grain of salt because things may change as it becomes more of an institutionally accepted asset, but that's kind of where I'm seeing the atmosphere now.

Justin Kramer:

So for 2022, to answer your original question, I see it tracking a lot of what the stock market will do. So the stock market does have the ability to grind higher. Although I think there will be some volatility, but if the Fed is able to time their interest rate policies successfully inflation stays down, there is a real chance that the stock market could have a good year, although it's not going to be day over day, 30% returns. And I think the crypto market's going to follow suit. The only difference where that starts to deviate, is the amount of money that's actually starting to be poured into these assets. And so from an institutional perspective, we're still at the tip of the iceberg, as it relates to who is investing in crypto markets. So once institutions and there's some more regulation, even though it's hurting it today will help in the long run.

Justin Kramer:

But once more institutions start [inaudible 00:22:28] assets, that can start to really circumvent and then deviate from a correlation perspective with the primary stock market. So if you had to ask me what I think, I think we're going to follow choppiness. I think it's going to follow the stock market, but if regulation passes and we see institutions really, really... and not just a little bit, like Tesla and some other companies, but institutions really start to invest in this, that's when it could take kind of that hockey stick growth curve and sky upward.

Justin Kramer:

That's the next catalyst I see, is like that kind of access and not from investors, but really from like pension funds, endowment funds, things of that nature. But until then I think we're going to be in a choppy environment. But crypto is a shit show. So, tomorrow Bitcoin could go back up to 60, 70K coin. Anything's possible. There's so many moving pieces. It hasn't been around long enough and we're still dealing with only a handful of wealth who honestly still control the market.

Peter Starr:

And that's a good thing to think about too, with the market still being down and with the choppiness coming, it's still going to be a good time for you to try stuff. I think the main way you can think about managing your risk is just to... The way you thought about tech stocks in 2020 was, "I buy Tesla now I'm going to recoup my entire investment potentially, very fast." And for a lot of people who use their first stimulus check to basically just buy Tesla stock that almost immediately happened, right? So the one thing you can do is rather than think about tech stocks as a gambling operation, think about them the way they should be thought about. Something that you put a little bit of money in and hopefully get a slightly higher return over the course of five to 10 years out of start extending your horizon, right?

Peter Starr:

And so for 2022, it's the year you try stuff. And so in crypto, it's try not necessarily going into Altcoin speculation, but experimenting with various other forms of crypto investing. Trying yield farming, trying staking crypto. Feel free to check out youtube.com/c/mobyinvest for our latest sort of deep dive into Olympus DAO and then momentarily are kind of step by step guide and how a stake an Olympus DAO. If you're feeling like you can stomach the gas fees that are just astronomical right now-

Justin Kramer:

Shameless plugs are your YouTube video?

Peter Starr:

That's me always. Also Shameless plug for my three, three squad. Where are my Omi's? Press three, three in the chat please. No, I have literally not even a $100 investment stake on an Olympus DAO right now. It's just for journalistic purposes only. Anyway. I mean, it might be huge later, but we'll find out. But that's the thing, it's all about trying stuff, right?

Justin Kramer:

Yeah. 100%.

Peter Starr:

Put some stuff out there, put some smaller investment out there and your positions don't necessarily have to be gigantic to be significant. And so Justin, as we get to the sort of rounded out here, when you're thinking about where we're going to be at the very end of 2022... I guess that's the main thing. I know it's impossible to predict the future entirely. We've seen a lot of choppiness. We're going to see a lot of that sort of go down. But do you think you and I are having a much more positive conversation when we come do this on December 16th, 2022?

Justin Kramer:

Yeah, I think so. I mean, choppiness, isn't a bad thing. I think we had a ton of investors, probably people who are listening to this, whether it's live or in the recording later on, who are new investors who just started getting to stock market this year, last year, within the last few years. And they've only seen asset prices go one way. They've only gone up. So they've been conditioned unfairly to say, "If I buy a stock today, it better 100% return within the next six months or it's dog shit." And it's like, that's just not how the stock market's been over the last 100 years. Choppiness isn't a bad thing. So when we start thinking about investing and not gambling, but investing, we're buying stocks that we want to hold for multi-year periods. And we've said it last year, it wasn't super popular because people were just concerned in getting rich quick.

Justin Kramer:

But this is how you really make money, is buying a stock like Tesla four years ago, five years ago, thinking this has the potential from a growth opportunity to be the next huge company. And if you were right, rather than getting one, 200% returns, you're getting 1000, 2000, 3000% returns. And that's where the real wealth actually is, is in that multi-year multi-generational holding period itself. My biggest piece of advice is find companies that you have high strong convictions in and hold them for years. Flipping companies and making a hundred percent returns in a month, yeah, it's really fun. But like in an environment like this, it's going to be choppy. And so I think next year, what we are going to be looking at when we look back when we have this conversation in a year, is stock selection becomes more important than ever. You can't just be chasing trends and coming after techs thinking it'll do well.

Justin Kramer:

You need to go after companies that fundamentally will be growing, will be reporting positive names. And again, this doesn't necessarily need to be, "It had a great 2022." Maybe buy in now has a shit 2022, but has a good 2023 or a good 2024. These are stocks we're holding for years, stocks that we fundamentally believe in and that things will turn around even if they're poor now. My biggest piece of advice is, do not be looking at your portfolio day to day. Know the names you have in it and know the names how they're trading, but don't be looking at the prices every day. It's going to drive you crazy. Just know if news comes out or something comes out from an earnings perspective that makes that company's thesis or your thesis in it is no longer valid, then you can sell it. But if nothing's changing, the day to day price fluctuations don't mean anything. It hurts, but measuring your wealth from your wealthiest point is the only way to end up driving yourself crazy once things start trending downwards. It's not a way to invest. It's very poor.

Peter Starr:

If you ask me, that as a brilliant pep talk to end on, we just hit the half hour. There's nothing else to add there. Cool guys, don't look at explosions, they just walk away. Cool investors never look at their portfolio. They have faith in the fundamentals and wait for years. I love that dude. Justin Kramer, co-founder here at Moby.co and our chief analyst. Brilliant words to live by, brilliant philosophy to live by. It's carried Moby.co and all of our subscribers to some really strong places here in 2020 and 2021. And I'm really excited for stock selection to get even more important as we get into the very considered period of 2022. Justin Kramer man, this has been awesome. Any final thoughts from you before I go ahead and read the credits? I can't believe a half an hour has already come by.

Justin Kramer:

No, I think I need to get some water, I'm running out of breath from the tirade and the rant I've been on. So I apologize everyone for the ramble, but it's important, man. Let's have a good 2022. Let's get investing. I hope the pandemic dies down and people can start resuming life a little bit. It's scary out there, but best of luck and happy, healthy, and new year for everyone.

Peter Starr:

Yeah. Blessed new year to all of you all. Thank you for joining us here. And don't just go ahead and read the credits folks. Audience, thank you much for all of your questions. We'll be getting to those sort of offline as well. Thank you for DM's. If you're listening to the recorded version of this podcast, feel free to join us over at Discord or just hit us up at Hello at Moby.co if you have any other questions, any other things you want us to analyze or think about moving forward as we get into this period of choppiness, this period of consideration, this period where the adults are finally in charge of investing again.

Peter Starr:

Otherwise, audience, just so you know, this podcast was produced, hosted and voiced by me, Peter Starr Northrop. All of the great advice you heard today was principally from Justin Kramer, our co-founder and chief analyst here at Moby.co. If you like this, please check us out at Moby.co. Check us out over at YouTube as well, youtube.com/c/mobyinvest. And just see us on our other socials as we keep putting out more sort of broad advice and want to be thinking about as you become a more considered investor. Otherwise, audience, I really appreciate your time. Thanks much for being here with us. And as always, I like to leave you with peace, love and incremental gains. Everyone be well, thank you so much.