Is The Bear Market Over?

Every single Friday we host a live discussion in our Discord Channel at 12:00pm EST. 

This gives you the opportunity to personally ask us any questions you have on the markets, the economy, crypto, etc.!

Here are the 4 key things we went over for this week: 

• Why the CPI print was such a huge deal

• What further fallout we can expect from FTX's historic collapse

• How the market is reacting to this historic midterm election

• Where the Fed can take the economy from here. Is this a new bull run or bear trap? 

If you'd like to listen live and ask us questions throughout the next live session, just join the weekly Friday afternoon session at 12:00pm EST.

• To listen live next time, join our Discord here: Discord Channel

• If you'd like to listen to this in Apple Podcasts: Click here

• We're also on Spotify: Click here!  

Check out a broader summary & transcript below! 

Peter Starr:
From moby.co, this is The Flagship Pod, a weekly live podcast about the stock market, the economy, and all the various market forces powering the world around you. As always, I'm your host Peter Starr, bringing you this time and a week of just rollercoastery mayhem. We started off this week with kind of confusing midterms, at least from the market's perspective. Then we got into a historic crash in crypto with FTX, now filing for bankruptcy Sam Bankman-Fried at this moment right here, right now is stepping down as CEO. And then also, of course, the CPI came out with inflation being just a little bit lower than expected, causing the market to absolutely rip upwards in the back half of this week.

I don't even know where to start here. To help me unpack just a wild week in the markets, as always, I am joined by Justin Kramer, CEO, and co-founder of moby.co here. Justin man, how do I even start making sense of this and where do we even start here, dude?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, there's a lot to unpack. The crypto saga is taking over the news right now as well as it should. It's pretty nuts. But past that, there's a lot more going on. There's finally some good news with inflation, which would then ultimately lead to potentially lower interest rates, more corporate earnings, and just kind of overall more mayhem in the markets. We'll talk through the election and any other questions our users have, we'll get through it as well.

Peter Starr:
Absolutely. And Justin, as we sort of begin unpacking this, I guess the best thing to do is just go in chronological order. Let's just start unpacking what happened with FTX first because it is just absolutely incredible watching the second biggest crypto exchange in the world meltdown in real-time. They've just filed for bankruptcy. Let's go all the way back to the beginning.

So this actually started with Binance really saying, "Hey, we're going to go ahead and bail on our position in the FTT token because we are worried about liquidity concerns over at FTX. We're going to get out of here." The very next day, Binance says they're going to buy FTX. The whole time SBF and the FTX team are saying, "Hey, no, no, no, we're solvent, we're good, we're fine." Because of all that, because of all that foul out, Bitcoin is down now into the 1600s, potentially going down even lower. How do you even make sense of a kind of meltdown like this, Justin? Is the crypto market just capitulating in the bear market or is this just kind of a temporary blip?

Justin Kramer:
Not to the same extent, but this is kind of crypto's Lehman moment if you will. For those of you unfamiliar, either not old enough or just wasn't paying attention to the industry back in '07, '08, Lehman Brothers went under seemingly almost overnight because they had so much bad credit on their books from the subprime mortgage crisis, which ultimately led to that great recession back in 2007, 2008. And it's kind of a similar situation we're seeing here now where instead of bad credit on their balance sheet, it was just a lack of liquidity.

So basically at a super high level, these exchanges, whether it's stock exchanges, crypto exchanges, or anything that's providing liquidity for markets, need to have some sort of underlying liquidity backing it. So what I mean by that, for example, is if you're on Robinhood, which is probably a little bit more relatable, every day people put money into Robinhood and they take money out of Robinhood. By law, you're required to have a certain amount of cash on the head to handle the withdrawals and usually, it's a pretty high amount so that if your average daily withdrawals say are like a million bucks, you need to have 5, 10, 20 million bucks on hand for big, big withdrawal days. And that's typically the rules and how banks are regulated in exchanges.

FTX is not a regulated entity and that's kind of what is underlying all of this is that they don't have the liquidity on hand to handle a run in their token. So this all started when there was a little bit of banter between them and Binance over Twitter, and the CEO of Binance basically said that they were going to be liquidating a lot of their position in FTX's token, FTT, which is basically the stablecoin of their network.
From there, this kind of led to this crazy cascading effect where everyone just started very quickly taking their money out of it, out of FTX's exchange, which led to this really, really big liquidity crunch. And then FTX ultimately didn't have the money to handle a lot of these withdrawals and the value of their token basically collapsed almost overnight. And when their CEO came out later in the week and reported on what happened, he basically said that they thought they had 5 to 10 times the average daily liquidity needed for the withdrawals when in actuality it was 0.8X, which is just not a mistake, that's negligence or fraud. At the end of the day, that's what it is.

And because it's based in the Bahamas and because it's not a regulated identity that he can get away with that, and he has been getting away with it for years and it kind of was, now that everyone's seen what's going on, it was more or less a house of cards or a Ponzi scheme. From an outside investor's point of view, there's no way we can know this. We don't have a look at their liquidity, we don't have a look at the way of their books. These are just fundamental risks that you're investing in without actually having any idea what's going on. And because they're not regulated, they can do whatever they want. They can say anything and there are no repercussions.

And that's basically what happened with FTX. And almost overnight you saw a business worth billions and billions of dollars go out of business in 24 hours. It shows the underlying fragility of the crypto ecosystem and honestly, this is really bad obviously, but what I think is even worse is long-term, it ultimately makes people's confidence in the crypto ecosystem as one of the largest exchanges in the system just really get diminished. I'm happy to talk through the long-term outlook for crypto as well, but that's really at a high-level kind of what happened and just shows that none of these companies and coins are really safe, even if you think they are.

Peter Starr:
And I guess one thing we need to get into real fast as well before we get to the long-term outcomes is there are also worries about BlockFi too. BlockFi just paused transactions and paused withdrawals as contagion risk is starting to spread a little bit. This all really kicked off earlier this year with Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO, the former now CEO of FTX being like, "Okay, I'm going to consolidate the crypto industry under me so I can go ahead and take out Binance." Clearly over-leveraged, clearly put a lot of dubious financial risks in play, and just on the back of Alameda just completely fell apart. But now BlockFi is pausing withdrawals too. BlockFi was obviously in a lot of trouble before. How bad is the contagion going to be, you think here Justin?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, the contagion event can be pretty bad because this can start cascading to other entities. So to your point, the BlockFi stuff, BlockFi was having its own liquidity issues earlier this year and now you're just seeing this massive distrust of inherent systems.

The first thing I was thinking of is money where, like where I held my own assets, like are those safe? And so if that's your first inkling, people are going to start taking money away from less safe networks. Say for example, if you bank at Bank of America Chase, even if you freak out at first, it's fine, or if not the government can come in and there are regulated entities to help you get liquidity God forbid they go out of business. But for BlockFi, for some of these neo-banks that are much, much less regulated or just don't have the financial security of one of some of these larger institutions, that's where people are going to take their money out of first.

So there's obviously BlockFi saw a massive amount of withdrawals start in their system and they probably didn't have anywhere near enough cash to cover it. And so they had to pause withdrawals until they could probably raise the liquidity needed or until withdrawal requests came down. But once you start limiting withdrawals, that's when your business is done. Imagine going to Chase or Bank of America and trying to take money out of your debit account and they say you can't. You'd be done. You would never bank there ever again.

As soon as you're able to take your money out, you take it out and you'd close out the account. So that's happening at BlockFi, it's happening at FTX clearly. Coinbase issued a statement saying that basically they were fine, but this is going to start spilling over into other parts of the crypto ecosystem. And then frankly it's pretty disheartening and it's going to ultimately put a lot of distrust, not only in the exchanges but in underlying tokens themselves because, at the end of the day, these are subject to people's building them via algorithms. It's subject to a ton of inherent risks that people don't realize and at any point, it clearly can be eroded very, very quickly.

Peter Starr:
And that's one of those things too. So it's just a way of essentially extending crypto winter because if anything, this kind of is. At the same time, this erodes trust in underlying institutions, it also shows us who's going to actually be strong during this. So it's kind of with the CPI, we're seeing prices stabilize a little bit as people jump back into risk-on assets. We're getting pretty confident about maybe this being a temporary blip. But you're right, Justin, the actual issue is this is not over. With BlockFi pausing withdrawals, that's a huge, huge negative sign.

So it's not just going to be FTX because remember, FTX was consolidating a lot around their industry as well. Solana has recovered a bit but is still down 50% on the week as Solana was heavily, heavily backed by FTX. So I don't think Solana's going to go down or anything, but Solana has a lot of ground to recover once the dust settles from all of this, once bankruptcy's gone through and we see just exactly how poorly this was managed, right?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, I think anything, like nothing is out of play right now. Any single coin, any single crypto company, if they're some sort of provider of liquidity, and even if they're not, if they're just doing business in the crypto ecosystem if there's enough trust that's eroded from consumers and from investors, no business is safe honestly. I think from day one we've been telling all of our users that these are highly, highly leveraged bets. You're taking a very, very small position with an outsize risk and reward system.
So basically you put in a little bit of money knowing it could very well likely go to zero, but the upside is infinity in theory. That's exactly the approach that you need to be taking here and you shouldn't be surprised when some of these tokens, when some of these ventures go to zero. These are way, way in their early stages. We haven't really seen any true applications in the crypto ecosystem over the last decade for consumers that have underlying inherent value.

This is just going to continue to happen more and more and it's been playing out over the last decade and frankly, it's a little surprising when it catches people off, guard.

Peter Starr:
Exactly. That's the main thing too, the idea that people get caught off guard by this when this has been kind of priced in forever. The problem is the way people talk about crypto and the problem is people get used to the insane gains they got during the bull runs of 2020 to 2021. You and me, we've been in this ever since the November of last year. We are in year one of this entire bear period because we've been doing analysis the entire time. We haven't been poking our heads in, we've been in here watching these charts go up and down for various projects.

So it's a tough moment, but again, plays out to the whole philosophy folks, where your whole goal here as an investor in any space is to never overextend yourself, never buy what you would have to be a forced seller for, stay the course, buy low, sell high. So this is a great period to start really dollar cost averaging back into these coins as well. But again, the bottom is not in, potentially the bottom could have been 15K. It's really hard to say how much the CPI supporting everything right now and how everyone's going to be forgiven if the market continues to rip like this.

So rather than speculate on that, just remember to keep safe. And Justin, that kind of is a good segue into the opposite land that is the stock market this week as the CPI came out and just blew everyone away. Justin, is that peak inflation? Are we done here? Did Jerome Powell save the world? What's going on?

Justin Kramer:
No, I definitely don't think we're out of the woods yet by any means. There's an interesting issue because if you look at core CPI, it definitely is starting to look like it's peaking/decreasing, but A, it's not over. And B, that does negate some of the largest incremental factors in inflation, which is food and energy, and core strips it out because food and energy are highly volatile and can be subject to change and according to some economists isn't a true measure of inflation. However, food and energy is basically what runs the world if you think about it like food feeds us and we can't survive without food and we can't get and do anything without energy.

So if you look at those and is it fair to strip those out? Hard to say. But higher rates are just going to make those sectors of the economy more expensive. We said before, like farming, which feeds us, is run on $500 billion worth of debt. If you raise rates, farming just becomes more expensive. The same thing is in energy and the same thing as in utilities. These massive energy companies who are drilling wells, supplying us with oil, and transporting gas around the world, they run on debt. So you increase the price of debt, it's going to increase the price of gas for the end consumer.

So I don't think we're out of the woods by any means. If the Fed comes out and says they're going to start slowing the increasing rates, like decreasing the rate at which they're increasing, then I think that will definitely help. It'll definitely help the markets at the very least just kind of see that some relief is coming. But until the rate increases, like the peak of rate increases is a tangible distance away, I still think there's more volatility to come.

Q3 earnings for example, also did not, they didn't really come in that bad. Tech wasn't great, but the rest of the industries weren't that affected by higher rates yet. If they keep raising rates for another quarter, pair that with just decreases in consumer confidence. If Q4 earnings come out next year and they're awful, it's just going to potentially put us into a deeper recession if we're not in one already.
So long story short, the economic outlook I still think is pretty poor; the market outlook starting to get into the warmer territory, but there's still going to be more volatility to come for sure.

Peter Starr:
Okay, five-second spot bet question, Justin, are you back to risk-on yet, or are you still waiting that out?

Justin Kramer:
We can add to our risk on positions and we've been continuing to do that even a month, two months ago as positions have just been so sold off and so depressed on an evaluation basis that it's hard not to add to them. But we're not throwing all of our chips back in the basket and saying, "Hey, we hit bottom. We're only going up from here." Yesterday's move upward was amazing. It was great to see that you're just seeing how much money's on the sidelines ready to be deployed back into the markets. But by no means, as I said, is this over. If you want to average into positions that are down huge or low valuations or enter new positions, I think if you haven't been doing that already, you should have been. But again, the environment hasn't changed much in my opinion.

Peter Starr:
And that's the most important thing to our audience. Don't believe anyone saying this is the bottom. Don't believe anyone's saying "Okay, throw all your chips back in," especially in the crypto space because this could play out exactly the same way it did July into August, where the CPI came out in August and it was a little bit lower than everybody expected and inflation was still up, but people got very excited off of very, very low gas prices and we had a nice, really, really fun bear market rally that ran up throughout August. Then the CPI dropped in September, knocking everyone back down to reality. The exact same thing can happen in December. And so we could be on this little bit of a seesaw with the primary driver of the market sentiment being the CPI. If it comes back, if we see... We're going to have to see two to threequarters of significant CPI decreases in order for us to be confident.

Justin Kramer:
It's not necessarily not over. It could easily be over, but everyone saying, "Oh, this is the bottom, this is the bottom." No one actually knows. And I think that's the biggest distinction I want to draw is that this very well may be the bottom. We may be on the other side of this, but no one can definitively say either way. So everything has to be risk-adjusted. Do we think there's a good chance we're close to the bottom? I think we're close and there's no reason to try not to time it as close as possible. And this very well may be a rally upwards for the next X amount of years. But by calling this the bottom, saying it's definitive, that's where I think a lot of people are being misled right now.

Peter Starr:
And even if it is actually the bottom too, audience, one thing to really keep in mind is that a lot of us are on the younger side. We're in the under-40s, where our primary investing life happened during this unprecedented bull run from 2010 to 2021. We saw the craziest amount of growth in the stock market in history driven mainly by the NASDAQ. There is no reason to believe that is going to continue because what we have seen from COVID is cascading crises.
The entire world economy shuts down in March, 2020. That leads to supply shocks, which are still being worked through. That leads to inflation, which leads to higher interest rates. One thing Justin and I keep talking about is the fact that our entire food supply is fueled so heavily by debt. The last time interest rates were this high, the debt to GDP ratio was what, Justin, not even 10% of what it is now? We have no idea what kind of gunk is going to be in the worldwide monetary system moving forward. Even if the Fed gets this stuff under control, the slowdown could be in for ages and we'll see really low growth on the back of, not a collapse or anything, but a really, really heavy slowdown in how we make food and how that all works out, just because of the amount of debt that's fueling everything.

So a lot of moving parts. We have no idea where this is going, especially because we're in bizarro world right now. Everything that's supposed to happen is not happening, with which Justin, I'm just going to jump into this segue about your thoughts about the US midterm election. Every midterm in history has been, you get a presidential election, and that president gets his ass kicked in the midterms, period, end of sentence.

While it looks like the House is going to be flipped to the Republican party, it's going to be barely done so and the Democrats are looking pretty likely to hold the Senate. The last time this happened, Justin, when a president in their first term held onto the Senate and only barely lost the House, that was FDR in the 1930s. You put out a good piece of research on Tuesday saying how the markets are going to react to every outcome of the US midterms. Looking at this now, how are you feeling about it, dude?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, it's interesting right now because with the midterm specifically, a lot of this is a result honestly of just the distrust or dislike rather of Trump, not necessarily the Republican party. So when you have a lot of these candidates that were Trump backed and embracing kind of his pro-MAGA agenda, we saw directly from voters that that is not what people want. We had a lot of people not even voting for Democrats, but just voting against Trump-esque type candidates, which speaks a lot, especially when you see DeSantis down in Florida with just kind of like this massive overall win.
Nothing is done at all until it's done, but it's interesting that with Biden's approval rating being so low with the Democrats holding on, it really to me speaks volumes about the country just doesn't want Trump given everything that he's done. Just morally, I'm totally on board with that with my personal views, which I try not to give too much on this podcast, but it's very interesting.

To your point, this hasn't happened in 50 plus years, and by no means should it have happened. So it really just shows the status of where we are and then ultimately how that impacts policy. More pro-Democrat things have a better chance of getting pushed. We'll still likely be in some sort of stalemate, but clean energy, China-based stocks, think about things that Democrats are either not as hard on or are more pro, those will continue to have a little bit more of tailwinds just from a political sense.

Peter Starr:
And the audience, to give you a sense of those numbers too, to what Justin's talking about, I need you to go back to the last time Ron DeSantis was elected governor of Florida. He barely eked out that victory. I think he won by literally a point. He absolutely flummoxed his Democratic opponent by a factor, I think it was 10 points, it may have even been 20. I looked at the chart and then I lost it. You know how it goes. But a huge increase in his margins and Marco Rubio holding on when he really shouldn't have shows that they've consolidated power down there. And that's going to kind of be the new core of the Republican party, which in a lot of ways puts Republicans in a difficult position given that Trump's space is still so strong too. We're going to see a house divided in the Republican party for a hot second here.

And again, like Justin said, we keep our political views close to the chest. I'm just the guy reading you the numbers here, y'all. So a really interesting period that allowed Joe Biden to become the most effective Democratic president since literally FDR. Not saying that he's FDR 2.0, he hasn't done nearly enough to earn that title, whether you think that would be a good thing or a bad thing, but just a wild, wild period in Democratic politics when a president with an approval rating as low as Joe Biden can pull off, kind of maybe not even losing a house in Congress. Regardless, we've never seen the House of Representatives this close before, so it's going to be a very interesting period in American politics.I have no idea what Congress is going to do for the next two years, but it's going to be wild. And I do not want to be a Republican strategist right now because that's a really, really tough coalition to manage right now. It looks pretty fracturey to me, whereas a lot of folks in the Democratic Senate managed to recapture the Obama 2012 coalition. So a lot to see here. Interesting period moving forward.
But you spoke to it Justin, and one of our niches, one of our bigger picks within our stock zone actually did pretty well in the back of that. And that's NIO, Chinese EV stock, up 10% this week off of really good earnings, improved relations with China hopefully, improved production, and at least a Democratic senate, which will mean that EV subsidies won't get absolutely nuked. What are your thoughts on your thesis on NIO so far, Justin, with them up pretty decently off of earnings? Not as good as Rivian, but Rivan's coming from a much lower spot.

Justin Kramer:
With NIO specifically, it's not that necessarily the Democrats are pro-China, they're not. You've heard Biden's stance on it. It's just that they're not as tough on China as Trump was. So ultimately I think if the Democrats, or sorry, the Republicans rather came into more of a stronghold within Congress and the House, you would see this strong pushback on a lot of the regulatory issues that are going on with Chinese listed stocks here in the US. Whereas with not as much of a heavy win there and a sweeping victory as they thought they would get, that's going to put a little bit of pressure on, or the lack of pressure rather on Chinese companies, which ultimately helps them out.
So I think that ultimately helps NIO. And then China, it looks like they're starting to take back a little bit of their zero COVID policy, which helps ultimately NIO a ton because all of their production is done in China. So if there's a little bit more leeway there, they don't have to shut down their production facilities, and they'll be able to meet demand a little bit more. And then ultimately, if they don't get de-listed in the US, those are two huge tailwinds for them going forward.

Peter Starr:
Exactly. And that de-listing risk is always going to be there, especially with China watching the whole situation in Ukraine and wondering if it's time to go straight up boogaboo on Taiwan. There's no indication that's going to happen, but that's always going to be a risk moving forward, especially as President Xi has now really consolidated power over there thanks to the latest CC Chinese Communist Party Congress.

So it's not quite a dictatorship, but when we were kids in the 90s, China had this cool period of almost, almost pushing towards more of a democratic model. But now Xi Jinping has put a nifty little stop to that being the most sort of consolidated ruler since Mao. So that'll be very interesting to see. He can do whatever he wants and if he decides, "Okay, it's time to flip the entire world economy on its head and take out Taiwan," we'll just have to see. But there are going to be a lot of risks there moving forward, regardless of who is in power. So a lot to watch there.
But one thing Justin, we did talk about very briefly was food prices as well. To get into the global conflict scene as well, it's looking like the Ukrainian armies in [inaudible 00:25:35] of the town of Kherson down in Ukraine, it has completed. The Russian army is trying to retreat 25,000 troops out of a very key strategic area in the south of Ukraine. And the Ukrainian army has blown up every bridge and basically encircled these people.

So a huge stranglehold moment is a kind of unfolding in Ukraine right now. And if they manage to lock that in, that puts us in a much stronger position for this to end way quicker and therefore for global food trade to get back on track as well. Because remember, we're talking about two of the biggest wheat producers in the whole world too busy fighting each other to farm right now. So some really encouraging signs all around.
But again, we are as always in the mixed signals zone here in this economy, but it's just been a very, very exciting rollercoaster so far. Crypto contagion's not completely over or anything. The good times in the CPI may not last like e-commerce is hurting really bad no matter what. So just a lot to consider. Justin, how do you make sense of all of this though? How should we be investing moving forward? Should we still be just keeping it defensive or how can we start beginning to play this if we're thinking a little bit riskier, has some positive signs starting to pop through in the market?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, I think similar to what we talked about before, just continuing to be defensive but having aggressive or adding to your aggressive parts of your portfolio. For a while now, we've held, this whole year basically, we've held pretty large chunks of our positions in energy and more defensive names, and those have obviously rallied and done extremely well this year. And we're going to continue to hold those, especially names that should do well even in decreasing oil price environments.
But we've continued and will continue to add to our tech names, to other high-growth names that have a sense of long-term profitability. You talked about Rivian. We like the company, and we love the product, but they are burning almost $2 billion a quarter and they have 14 to $15 billion of cash on hand. So it's like a year or two ago, two years ago, three years ago wasn't as much of a concern because getting money was so easy. Now, with higher rates, and less liquidity, I don't think they're going to run out of business, but unless they raised more capital via equity or debt markets next year, they're going to go out of business, which becomes now much more of a concern.
So I think if you're going to invest in companies like that, you need to realize that no one is not safe, for example. These massive companies can go out of business, they've just been well capitalized in a very unique decade. But those are inherent risks that now are being baked into their evaluation in a way it never was before. So a long-winded way of saying we want to continue to take positions in companies we fundamentally believe in, but we need to be taking or understanding what the risks are given capital constraints and long-term profitability. This is going to be marked in the next few years as companies that actually make money, not just companies that have cool products.

Peter Starr:
Hell yeah, dude. Speaking of which, we're literally two minutes from the end here, two minutes from time. So I got to just jump on this one real fast. In a company all hands, literally yesterday, Elon Musk said that bankruptcy wasn't out of the question for Twitter. Speaking of companies that go out of business real soon, how long do you think Twitter has left to live, dude?

Justin Kramer:
I doubt they go out of business. I know Elon had said that he said to his executives and his employees that unless they make more money and get more cash, they would effectively be subject to that. Listen, he ultimately bought this at a lot more than what he wanted to. But as one of the smartest men in the world, regardless of your opinion of him, I doubt that he's put sinking $44 billion into a company that's going to go out of business in less than a year. So I think they'll be fine, but there are definitely some serious concerns. Luckily they're a private company, so it is not our problem anymore.

Peter Starr:
Yeah, that's the main thing too. It's interesting to speculate. It's the only thing the internet wants to talk about, but it's just really interesting to watch the overreactions and see exactly where that all goes. I'm just glad I bought Twitter when I did and I'm glad that Elon very graciously got us out at that ridiculous price because it was a deeply mismanaged company from the get-go. So a lot to see here. I'm in it for the lulls as well. It's just a funny time on Twitter right now. Again, it really just hasn't been for a long time.
So either way, just keeping an eye on that. Social media itself is also just a dumpster fire. I'm sure Mark Zuckerberg is really glad that people like Sam Bankman-Fried exist because now all of the pressure’s off of him as he begins to spend hundreds of billions of dollars a year on reality labs trying to catch up to TikTok. So a very interesting time in all of those markets. But that puts us right here at the actual end here, Justin. Any final thoughts before I go ahead and read the credits? Again, just an absolute whirlwind here in the market today.

Justin Kramer:
I think there's a lot to unpack. The world's Q3/Q4 has been nuts. It's kind of dwarfed things that are going on. That's all we talked about earlier this year, like Russia and things like that. It's crazy that it's not even making headlines anymore. But no, there's a lot going on. It's fluid. As soon as you think something, something changes. So I would say suggestions for the rest of this year until early next year is do not have this confirmation bias where you're looking for just additional facts and opinions that just back what you're thinking. Continue to be open, continue to realize that thesis's change, and I'll put you in a good place if you're comfortable taking on new pieces of information and adapting with it.

Peter Starr:
And that's the most important thing too. A lot of the folks who listen to this podcast and are in our Discord are in their first two to three years of being investors. And if this is your sort of first experience really paying attention to the market, watching your portfolio, and actively building it, congratulations, you are investing at the most mayhem-filled time in decades.
This is going to be such a strong education for you moving forward, and the perspectives you develop and cultivate during this time will help you be a stronger investor during comparably calmer periods. So I commend you for staying the course, especially after a year of just difficult news. It's been a real, real wild one, but I've been really happy to explore that with y'all here as this is actually, Justin, do you know this is our 52nd episode? This is it. This is 52. We are a year old now officially in consistent uploads. We literally started talking consistently about the markets at the very top of the last bull run. We are nothing if folks with sick timing. So thanks for being with us for a year audience. Justin Kramer, CEO, and co-founder here at moby.co. Thanks much for your time, dude. It's been a really wild run, especially today. Audience, if you have any questions for us, feel to hit us up at [email protected]. But for now, it's a pretty good place to end it. So as always, folks, we'd like to leave you with peace, love, and incremental gains. Everyone, be well. Thank you so much.