Flagship Pod: Q4 Expectations

Published on October 3rd, 2022

Every single Friday we host a live discussion in our Discord Channel at 12:00pm EST. This gives you the opportunity to ask us questions and hear our thoughts on the things you want answers to!

Here are the 4 key things we went over for this week: 

• A lookback at Q3 and what to expect in Q4

• How a MASSIVE update in Alzheimer's research just saved a whole industry

• How the next 10 years will look very different than the last 10 years

• Why retail might be in big trouble as we end the year

If you'd like to listen live and ask us questions throughout the next live session, just join the weekly Thursday afternoon session at 5:00pm EST.

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Check out a broader summary & transcript below! 

Peter Starr:
From Moby.co, this is the Flagship Pod, a weekly podcast about the stock market, the economy, and the various market forces powering the world around you. As always, I'm your host Peter Starr, bringing you this time, what is it, the last day of Q3?

We have gotten through what has been an absolutely wild one as we gear up for the true, true ride that Q4 will be. October's going to be pretty wild, folks, and to get us through our outlook for Q4 and to understand what's been going on in this very rollercoastery week in the market, as always, I'm joined by Justin Kramer, CEO, co-founder and chief analyst here at Moby.co.

Justin, man, thanks so much for joining us, dude. What's good on your end?

Justin Kramer:
Not much. Excited to chat through everything today, like always. There's a lot going on, so I'm excited to get through it.

Peter Starr:
Exactly. I mean, it's pandemonium right now. I mean, where do we even start? I think the most important thread that we've seen throughout Q3 is reaching its crescendo here on the last day of Q3, and that is the dollar just absolutely hulking out. The USD, the DXY is just up massively compared to previous years, like we're back at the 1990s, even sometimes 1980s levels of dollar strength.

The UK market is basically imploding over this. The conservative UK government is trying everything but raising rates, basically, tax cuts, mayhem.

The Chinese central bank is dumping dollars and holding onto the Yuan as much as possible, trying to weaken the Yuan compared to the Dollar. How do we even play this, Justin? It looks like the market is just largely flipping out over our main currency just being way too strong right now.

Justin Kramer:
Yeah. So for people who are in the US, which is a majority of our audience, you would think a stronger dollar would be good because it counteracts the effects of inflation, and to a certain extent, I mean, it can help out. Having said that, it's primarily not a good thing. So if you think about a stronger US dollar versus other currencies, if you want to go travel to other places, yeah, that's great.

You go to Europe, you go to most other countries, your dollar's going stronger so it's great for some consumers. But for corporate earnings, for the market, for the economy, it actually kind of has the opposite effect. So think about a company like Nike, for example.

They have a large operation overseas, both in Europe and other parts of the globe. And so when they take those sales and revenue and translate them back into US dollars, because that's where they're reporting, they're actually losing a lot on that foreign translation currency adjustment.

So their revenue overseas, which for Nike, for whatever companies in question, is going to look a lot worse than it actually is because of this. So if you think about corporate earnings, you think about corporate revenue, not only is there a slowdown in the economy across the world, now there's an additional slowdown due to this currency. So it kind of makes a bad situation significantly worse. And then anything else that's denominated to foreign currency, again, when it gets translated back on shore, it's going to be worth a lot less.

So for companies that are primarily operating in the US, less of a concern. And so we definitely have a few stocks on the site and through our app that we've talked about that are good plays. But for a lot of companies that have a lot of operations overseas, this is really going to hurt and is going to show up over the next few months if not quarters in a lot of their earnings, which is going to have a lot of adverse effects.

Peter Starr:
And it gets even wilder because a lot of that's going to be directly priced in, right, Justin? In terms of we're going to watch earnings come out starting next week and really kicking off in the next two to three weeks as earning season kicks in, we get all these big tech companies who should have weathered inflation just fine, but they're going to be seen in terms of a strong dollar now, right? So it's one of those things where it's a perfect storm of inflation and a strong dollar as the US Fed was the sort of biggest mover in terms of trying to fight inflation.

Is this something that's going to make earning season hurt even worse, or is that kind of overthinking the macro effect on earning season?

Justin Kramer:
I mean, to your point, a lot of it should be relatively priced in. It's somewhat of an easy thing to project. So for most people listening, I mean, they're not going to this extent, but for analysts at a lot of the top funds and banks, they can just see, okay, this is how much this company is doing on average from these countries, and here's what the expected foreign translation would be. And then they can say, this is how much our up or down it's going to hurt their overall earnings.

So I mean, long story short, it should be relatively priced in at this point, but again, if things start shocking to the downside and get worse, it's always going to have adverse effects upfront. So something we really need to be aware of when we start thinking about a lot of companies that have operations overseas.

Peter Starr:
Right. And it's one of those things where the core CPI is going to be the main indicator coming out in just under two weeks. And so that's where we're going to be mainly watching, audience, to see how inflation is doing. We did get the Fed's preferred inflation report today. Before I get to that though, Justin, this market has just been pulled in a thousand directions this week. We had a full roller coaster moment from Tuesday, Wednesday into Thursday, just a perfect sine wave of losses, gains, and losses again, and those losses seem to be compounding right now. With inflation, basically "priced in," I'm sorry I'm saying that so much today, it's just kind of the word of the day for me. Why is the market still downturning on this? Are we just really, really freaked out over a too hawkish Fed or is it the sort of international situation that is causing the markets to really just go complete chaos mode right now?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, I mean, we're just not out of the clear yet. So if you think about this week in particular, you're still digesting prior inflation news. We're seeing again today more negative inflation news come out. Rates are continuing to rise, like the real estate market is slowing down even further. We're seeing more escalation in terms of the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe with what's going on with Russia and Ukraine. And it's just like you look across the environment, whether it's currencies, whether it's relationships with other countries, whether it's our economy, whether it's inflation, interest rates, I mean, you name it, they're all not trending in the right direction. We would've thought things would've got under control, but again, they're still trending downwards.

Companies now are thinking this recession will last even longer. They're doing more firings instead of hirings. And again, that light at the end of the tunnel, which a lot of investors are looking for, is not yet there. And until it's there, things are going to have a tough time reversing because it's just so forward-looking.

So I mean, we'll have to see what the inflation numbers look like for the CPI, which will be the next report that comes out. But with the Fed's preferred numbers coming out today, just showing even more inflation, I mean, anticipation is that it won't be as good as well.

Peter Starr:
And audience, to give you that number, that is the Fed's core inflation measurement and that rose 4.9% from a year ago, and in August it rose at 0.6% month over month. So they were hoping for more of a 0.3 situation. Justin, you've talked about this before, way back in the day when we thought inflation was going to peak in Q2, it kind of looked like core inflation was the indicator that that was an accurate assessment, and now it's showing that inflation may be a little bit spicier than anticipated as opposed to a lot better.

Can you take us through what core inflation is and why the Fed prefers it real fast, and is this something the market's going to freak out about or is it all CPI all day when the market is concerned?

Justin Kramer:
Oh, sorry, I was on mute for a second. Yeah, so it's a good question. So core inflation versus the measure of CPI. I mean, at the end of the day they both are really important and the economy's going to digest them in a similar way, although to your point, the Fed has a preferred number. But basically core inflation does not include food and energy prices. And right now, although energy prices have been coming down significantly, it was definitely a concern for a while given oil prices and all the other energy prices we're seeing. So when you factor out energy prices, you factor out food, the Fed is looking at that and saying, what are the real goods in the economy that are increasing or decreasing on a month-over-month basis. CPI, on the other side, pretty much tracks all of that together, which can be inflated based off energy prices, which is a very volatile situation.

So long story short, they should trend in a similar direction. Having said that, core inflation, which is the Fed's preferred metric, is going to ultimately be a little bit more accurate. At the end of the day, it's similar to Bitcoin and the stock market. They're both going to trend in a similar direction, they're not going to deviate too much. So when we see core inflation today from the Fed come out and saying that it was a little bit hotter than they expected, we would expect CPI then to follow a similar trend. At the end of the day, CPI does factor in, like I said, energy prices and they have been falling significantly. So it could cool it down more than core inflation. But at the end of the day, this is a tough game to play trying to predict inflation.

Just for the record, what most analysts, what we're doing is you can predict what stocks and what certain investments will do. But understanding economics, I mean, even the best economists in the world, it is very much a guess. There's so much data sources, it's even hard to say if those data sources are relatively accurate. We can use everything we have at hand, but trying to predict where interest rate policy and inflation will go, I mean, it's close to impossible. So point being, it should track it, that's our best guess, but we are much less confident in that than I would say we would be in where certain stocks would be going relative to those numbers.

Peter Starr:
And that makes a lot of sense too, and audience, if you're hunting for just a teeny tiny little bit of hopium in there, just keep in mind that while core inflation's been following a specific trend, we've also seen gas prices in August trend down a little bit faster than they did in July, which gives us a little bit of hope for the CPI. But one of those things, they will always trend together and since supply [inaudible 00:09:55] inflation was so intense, mainly with energy prices, what we'll see potentially with this next CPI is more decrease in energy prices. But since now core inflation is creeping back up as those energy prices have finally cascaded down and those costs are not getting passed on to secondary buyers and therefore being passed on to the consumer, we may see those trends kind of converge a little bit, but energy prices are going down a lot faster than core inflation is going up.

So fingers crossed that it shakes out that way in the CPI, but again, no one can really tell. Everyone expected a lot less spicy inflation report here in September and so October's going to be another really critical one to really sort of cement us into this extended bear market period. You did mention crypto though, Justin, and this week's been really interesting for the crypto market. Bitcoin's been on a rollercoaster similarly, but it seems to be finally decoupling a little bit from other commodities. Can you kind of take me through Bitcoin prices just hovering below 20K right now? It's in the high nineteens, 19.858 right now, after doing its own little rollercoaster game this week.

Can you take me through how the crypto markets respond to this as well? Is crypto finally fully diverging or is this kind of like a little head fake as market makers are just trying to squeeze some profit before the real bear times hit?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, it's a good question. Right now if you track the price of Bitcoin relative to the S&P, it definitely followed a little bit of a spike when we saw the market spike earlier this week followed by the crash. But to your point, it seems to be deviating ever so slightly over the last few days, with it clearing that 20K number. Over the short term and even over the longer run, this is not of enough of a deviation for us to say that this is going to be pronounced or continue.

We fully, fully anticipate for Bitcoin to ultimately continue its relationship with the equity market, which is up and down as we've seen over the first nine months of this year. So long story short, view this as a very, very short-term factor. We do not anticipate that this will be pronounced, then ultimately we see Bitcoin again sliding right back where the S&P is. So we think this run is very, very short-lived.

Peter Starr:
And I think that's the key and critical thing, audience, you have to understand that the key, key metric here is volatility. It's just pandemonium times. So if you are trying to find a reason to get back into more active crypto trading, this is definitely not it. This is more of a blip than anything. We're going to keep watching it obviously, but I would honestly keep this in mind as more of an indication that you need to be in buy and hold season. Staking is really popular right now. Get all your Eth, get all your Polygon into various exchanges, get staking revenue as well as the speculative rise and fall of your stocks, and just kind of turtle up and accumulate during this time period as we watch these very interesting price swings. Because again, Bitcoin will not continue this deviation if the S&P goes down any further on bad CPI, such bad earnings news coming out this month. This is going to be a very pivotal month for the rest of the market.

Of course, Justin, it's not all bad news. And this is it, this is the time where I get to do a quick brag. I'm doing my victory lap now. I never anticipated I'd be doing it this soon, but literally two weeks ago, I came to you with medical trial information from Eli Lilly that suggested that maybe Alzheimer's medications aren't as bad as the market is treating them right now, and that Biogen has a new Alzheimer's medication coming out in Lecanemab, and that they're going to have critical trial news. It was going to measure the actual effectiveness of that drug as opposed to whether or not it treats a bogus protein or not. The trial came out on Tuesday, Justin. Biogen is up 40% just about this week because turns out we fucking rocked it. Sorry for swearing, don't care. Some really, really positive news in terms of actual effectiveness for treating Alzheimer's coming out of Biogen.

So Biogen, a stock that has been absolutely pummeled this year, really awesome short-term gamble, really excited about long-term prospects for Biogen as well. But it's one of those things where there's always money to be made, especially if you're watching sort of how industry swings. And we're just really happy that we picked this one up. Justin, thank you so much for giving me the confidence just to sort of run with it. This is a huge moment in the markets, in the pharma markets specifically. Eli Lilly's also popping on the news because it's positive for everyone really. When you look at this though, is this going to be something that's going to be short-lived? Is this one of those things where it's a short-term swing trade then you get out? Or is it a positive indication moving forward for the whole pharma industry as opposed to the rest of the market?

Justin Kramer:
No, it means really promising and we... Not to get too deep in the weeds here, because listening to biotech reports can put most people to sleep. But the underlying kind of bump up, to your point, was due to this Alzheimer's drug data that came out based on data before that was potentially fraudulent in terms of this drug actually helping more slow down the onset of Alzheimer's. And so when the report came out recently from the FDA, this is, again, nothing is necessarily a long-term solution, Alzheimer's is over, but there was initial evidence that this definitely slows it down.

The stock popped almost 40% over the course of a few days and is up again over 40% in the last month. If you zoom out even further, over the last year, even though it's down prior, it's up 10% this year. This is a really good short-term catalyst for Biogen to have a potentially really kind of record-breaking drug if this ends up going even further.

A few years ago they were doing over 14 billion in revenue. This has the ability, or this drug in particular has the ability to two to three x that revenue count alone. Granted, that's going to take place over a very long time horizon, but this is definitely not an overreaction. We want to see more data, we're going to want to see how this progresses, but this is definitely not a short-term thing, hey, sell the news and walk away. This is really exciting stuff here and do not want to understate how pivotal a moment this is, not only for the stock but just healthcare in general.

Peter Starr:
It all comes down to the data the FDA gathered and that's where we got our confidence from. We knew this was a potentially good "gamble," because the FDA was running the bus on this study and they're going to be very, very strongly looking at all Alzheimer's medications right now because of that potential fraud, which was in a government-funded study from the UK, I believe, literally 20 minutes ago, that kind of guided all of Alzheimer's research. And the fact that this has actual clinical effects, not just getting rid of the thing that was potentially fraudulent, but people's cognitive decline actually slowed, some people's cognition actually improved. And this is across a huge trial sample of over 1,500 people. Really exciting news in terms of Biogen's whole strategy, which is they pick one sector of pharma to just completely tackle and take over.

They rose to prominence and got to that 14 billion revenue mark off of multiple sclerosis and other neurodegenerative diseases, can never say that fast. Sorry, folks. And they were using that success now that their MS medications are getting hit by generic pressure to move into Alzheimer's. Their first Alzheimer's medication basically, it hasn't been pulled but they've killed all support for it because it just didn't really work. When you're a smart researcher though, when you're a smart pharmaceutical company, you put five or six bullets in the gun so to speak. So their big one was this Lecanemab drug that came out, has really, really strong and interesting efficacy, along with another drug from Eli Lilly, which is the reason Eli Lilly is popping up this week too. Completely unrelated to what's going to make it a strong buy for the next three to four years, which is their diabetes 2 line.

So regardless, huge moment for pharma, really excited to see lots of positive motion there. And again, Alzheimer's isn't cured, but the fact that we're finding new and better ways to treat Alzheimer's, it gives everybody a lot of hope as we better understand this disease. We need to make sure we also understand that we really still do not understand Alzheimer's as a disease. We have the same understanding of Alzheimer's that people back in the 1400s had of heart disease. We are very much at the beginning of this process. The human brain is the most complicated object in the known universe. So just understand, Alzheimer's is not cured, but we have finally some positive treatment paths for this disease, and it's awesome that Biogen gets to keep existing as a company on top of this. I don't want to stay too much in pharmaland because I know it's literally only interesting to me, Justin.

So I guess as we approach sort of the back half here, we did promise our audience last week we would get back into the geopolitical situation. Justin, I'm going to just do a hard pivot just to make sure we don't run out of time. So positive market news out of the way, let's get back to the negative. Lots of wild stuff happening over in Europe today. Russia officially annexed four little states that it has been invading in Eastern Ukraine and has basically been funding a proxy war there for eight years, full on invasion for the past eight months.

There's potentially, I mean, literally the Nord Stream pipe line got kind of blown up this week. Signs pointed to it being Russia, Russia accuses NATO, some random people in France blame bio terrorists, who cares? How is this shaking out in terms of how the market's going to react to it? Is this a volatility increase or decrease or is this one of those things where maybe we overblew its effect on inflation? And how are you feeling about the situation in Eastern Europe right now as things kind of get a little bit more spicy?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, so right now, I mean, it's a good question because you add all this volatility in the markets outside of the geopolitical, you just add inflation, high interest rates, corporate earnings, all these things being affected. And then on top of that, you throw in a war in Eastern Europe, and you think it's going away, you think it's getting better and then Russia comes out, is annexing part of the Ukraine, to your point. There's an explosion and everyone's pointing fingers at each other. I mean, this is a terrible, terrible step in the wrong direction. This is going to end up having, I think, massive, massive effects and downstream effects for how the market will ultimately digest this. And when you think about the geopolitical, outside of any direct military strikes, like if there was a nuclear attack or anything direct from Russia, this is stuff that plays out over years.

So today President Biden came out and announced that there's going to be more sanctions on Russia. But by the time that is felt by Russia, by the time they respond, by the time they put out their own sanctions, flows in. I mean, this is months and months and years in the making in how companies play this. So this is much more of a longer term effect. Right now it's a little too early to see how this will play out, but in general, this is very much a part of our onshoring theme. If you haven't heard us talk about this before, or if you have at a very high level, rewind 50 years ago, let's call it, and a lot of countries, like the US, started outsourcing pretty much everything to other countries. You could get labor, parts in other parts of the world, in China and parts of Asia that were significantly cheaper.

So companies took that opportunity and made everything streamlined. They were able to cut costs and do a lot of things that for years worked. And right now what we're seeing in Russia and what we're seeing the rest of the world is that globalization has a lot of adverse effects and risks that no one ever really anticipated up till now. So Russia was one of the largest exporters of energy in the world, especially for Europe.

And with what's going on in all these sanctions, Russia shut off a lot of their supply of energy to Europe, which outside of the cost of it, ultimately has a massive effect on the national security of a country. So what a lot of countries and companies over the last few years realized, especially with the supply chain shortages due to COVID, is that maybe globalization isn't all what it was cracked up to be.
There's definitely a lot of benefits, but when push comes to shove, your supply chain gets messed up, your defense systems get messed up. So over the next five to 10 years, we fundamentally think the way companies operate is going to massively, massively change.

This could be one of the biggest themes over the next few years. Companies like Tesla, for example, are going to bring a lot of their operations on shore so they don't have to worry about supply chain issues and shortages. Mining for certain materials that are very crucial to the safety of our nation also will be brought onshore. This will ultimately in the short term have a lot more inflationary effects because things are more expensive onshore, but over the long run will be very sustainable. And so we have to look at that. That is going to be a huge theme and a lot of our investments over the next few years are going to play into that massively, this onshoring effect as part of the war and downstream effects from what's going on in Russia right now.

Peter Starr:
And I think the only other thing to really lock in here is just the same idea that this is going to be something that's going to be good for some businesses, bad for others. And it's just one of those things where it's going to affect everything from banking to defense as what onshoring is going to do worldwide to sort of beginning a bunch of currency competition as well. And your kind of seeing it play out already as the rest of the world is trying to decide, wow, the US is the global reserve currency. It kind of hurts right now. Justin, do you see any competition for the US dollar coming down the pike over the next 10 years, or is that wildly overblowing the onshoring theme?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, right now, if you look back over the last decade, like digital currencies were supposed to be that reserve currency that couldn't be inflated and that people would put their money in. Obviously, with the volatility of it, we've seen that really shake out over the short run. Over the long run there's no reason that still can't happen.

To have something that is immutable, that can be transferred over borders, that isn't affected by government policy definitely adds value, especially in a time now where we're seeing currencies jump up and down all over the place. Is it going to play out over the next few years? Probably not. Is it going to play out over the next decade? I think it's definitely still in play.

But if we're looking at shorter-term effects, the US dollar for the foreseeable future is going to be that reserve currency, that safe place, and where everyone starts depositing more and more money into. So while it's a good thing and it makes sense, at the same time, it definitely impacts how we think about inflation and trade and everything along with it that we talked about on the show earlier.

Peter Starr:
And that's something really important to keep in mind, audience. We always examine these kind of giant slow forces on a day-by-day basis and you just can't react and game things out day-by-day-by-day. You have to sort of watch the trends, and react to them emotionally in the short term. But when you're actually thinking about your real investments, take that longer view and that's how you're going to get a much more sane and much more measured reaction/strategy for going with a lot of these macro trends.

So when you're thinking about that, audience, don't overreact, the market certainly isn't overreacting to it. Yes, we're going to see a lot of companies try to combat a strong dollar and also just generally trying to strengthen their currencies, which is the thing to do when you have such a strong inflationary environment but don't overreact to it.

So I guess that kind of gets us into the final moments here, Justin. Just one last thing, Justin, we're going to be talking a lot about our Q4 outlook next week as next week is actually in Q4, but I'm just going to give you one piece of information that just came across the wire. Nike shares, Justin, they're down 12% today because they said that they are overstocked in inventory up 44%. How do you think retail's going to do in this environment, Justin? Is this going to be blacker than Black Friday or are we going to see retail save the world once again?

Justin Kramer:
Yeah, I mean, we're seeing a lot of it play out in real time. To your point, Nike just fell off a cliff today. It's down over 11% as of 1:00 PM Eastern on Friday, September 30th. But even zooming out even further, I mean, this year alone, they're down almost 50%. So this is definitely a part of what we'll call a retail apocalypse. People aren't spending, as interest rates go up they're spending less and less and less, which is hurting, in addition to the foreign currency adjustments, it's hurting companies like Nike. So it's really interesting you bring them up. So this is all, I mean, there's so many different things that play into this. Their foreign sales are hurting, interest rates are rising, so people are spending less, which is exactly what the Fed is trying to do. So long story short, there's all these different factors that are ultimately affecting stocks like Nike.

Is this going to continue? A hundred percent. So we need to be really cognizant of retail-based stocks right now. So if you look at, for example, on our website or on our app, we're not really, we haven't in a long time recommended any retail stocks. It's just not really in play. But the retail stocks that are in play, that actually do well in environments like this, are defensive names. So you wouldn't think it, but beauty and cosmetics companies do really well. So we covered a company called e.l.f. Beauty earlier this week. They're up almost 37% this year alone. So they are a consumer name that you think would be slowed down, but over the last 50 years we've seen when things get defensive, people are buying more beauty products. And then they're also buying more alcohol products. So Constellation Brand is another company that we've covered, I mean, several times now over the last few years.

Ultra defensive name. They're one of the highest performers relative to the S&P over the last year. I mean, that one makes a lot more sense conceptually. People aren't going out as much, they're staying home. People definitely are a little bit depressed given what's going on in the world. And so sales of cannabis, sales of alcohol are up significantly. So in general, consumer-based stocks are not going to do well in an environment like this, but there are certain subsectors within the overall consumer sector that can perform well. But I mean, long story short, yeah, what's going on with Nike? What's going on with other retail companies? I mean, this is kind of obvious, people don't have the money to spend anymore, things are getting more expensive. So ultimately these companies are going to take a massive haircut.

Peter Starr:
And that's just kind of the name of the game. It's finding your way to buy and hold your way through this. Audience, if you were buying Nike, say, in 2020, that was the right move, and now it's not time to sell, so to speak. Just kind of hold your way through it. Your time horizon has to be long. You have to be patient, and that's how we're going to win this overall. There's always something to buy during any kind of downturn, any kind of moment. And that will still make it a better buy for the long term than anything else. And that's the perspective we have. You have to be long-term here as you think about this.

Regardless, Justin Kramer, CEO, co-founder, and chief analyst here at Moby.co. Thank you for your perspective here today, man. We did kind of go over, but we had a lot to cover today, dude. Any final thoughts for me before I go ahead and read the credits? As always, just an awesome conversation, dude. Just always glad to be here.

Justin Kramer:
No, I think, yeah, exactly the point. Definitely happy to chat all through this stuff. I think right now more than ever, we're in this kind of gray area where it's hard to point at one single thing and say, this will or won't happen due to what's going on. Right now, more so than ever, you have a lot of macro factors that it's hard to really point your finger at a company and say they're going to do one thing because there's so many outside effects that are out of their control. So to paint a little bit more, like better of a description, look at a company like Tesla. For them to be able to deliver their batteries historically it's pretty projectable, it's not that hard. But today, where they get a lot of their parts and materials from overseas, their supply chain shortages still, then we're dealing with shipping routes being affected, given what's going on in Eastern Europe.

On top of that, there's a massive hurricane going on in the Southeast that's just disrupting things even more. Then there's a supply shortage, then people are buying less. I mean, there's just so many things that they can't control for. So right now, more so than ever, everything is very macro-driven. Over the next decade, those things will play out, but in the short term, as you're thinking about investing, you can't think about companies in isolation anymore. You need to think about how they're interacting with the world because that is ultimately what will impact their stock in the short term.

Peter Starr:
Precisely. So just kind of stay the course. Do not get distracted by all this volatility. No one knows where the market's going to be going in the next two to three months, but some big moves are coming in either direction. Either way, Justin Kramer, thanks so much for joining us. Thanks so much for your conversation. Audience, thank you so much for your questions. If you have any other questions, first you can hit us up at hellomoby.co or join us on our Discord audience for listening to the recorded version of this podcast. Anything else, audience, you can hit us up over at our Instagram and/or our TikTok as we expand over there.

Regardless, audience, thank you so much for hanging out with us here. If you want to see what we have on offer for our members as well, you can hit us up over at www.moby.co/go -- We'd love to show you our actual research and show you more of our long-term thinking there. Either way, folks, thank you so much for listening and as always, we'd like to leave you with peace, love, and incremental gains. Everyone, be well. Thank you so much.